Uh oh, it’s Oscar time again…and this year’s a doozy. For one thing, there’s no clear winner in most major categories (including best picture!). For another, this is one of those terrible years where I’ll be in transit during the actual broadcast, which means I’ll have to watch it off my TiVo when I return (that’s always the worst). And in an added bit of insanity, my father and I have made identical picks. This is the first time in the twenty some-odd years we’ve done our annual bet that we haven’t differed on a single category. Not even one!

Before the picks, my usual disclaimer:

I don’t care who should win, I only care who will win.

I also find that I have better picks when I don’t see the nominated movies. My personal opinion can cloud my judgement when choosing winners.

And yes, I take these things seriously. I don’t watch sports, I watch movies. The Academy Awards are my Super Bowl.

Let’s get to the picks.

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave

This category is surprisingly contentious this year, thanks to a tie (a TIE!) at the Producer’s Guild Awards, which is usually the best predictor for this category. Still, in the last few weeks everyone seems to be pointing toward 12 Years a Slave to win, and I go where the buzz goes.

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

With 12 Years a Slave taking picture, I see Gravity as taking director. For one thing, it’s a hell of a job Cuaron did, and for another, he won the DGA award, which is the best indicator there is.

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

I have a fair amount of confidence in this one, simply because there hasn’t been much buzz for anyone else at all this Oscar season. But Bruce Dern could pull it off, as could DiCaprio. And Chiwetel Eijofor could as well, particularly if 12 Years a Slave winds up with a pile of awards.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

I feel pretty good about this one. I never discount either Judi Dench or Meryl Streep, and Amy Adams is due. But I feel pretty good here.

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

I feel…okay with this choice. I haven’t seen the film, but I think the buzz is with Leto. This category has been known to surprise though, so look for Michael Fassbender, Barkhad Abdi or even Jonah Hill to pull a shocker of the evening.

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyongo, 12 Years a Slave

My gut tells me she’s got it locked. But then I do have a blind spot for Jennifer Lawrence. Of the two movies I saw her in last year, I thought she was better in The Hunger Games (seriously, she was all wrong in American Hustle). And who knows about June Squibb for Nebraska. It’s a crowd-pleasing role, and she’s been out there campaigning.

Best Original Screenplay: Her

This one is either going to go to American Hustle or Her. I’m going with Her, but I don’t feel good about it. At one point American Hustle was a surefire lock for best picture. But it lost the buzz. I think Her is going to take it, but your mileage may vary.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave

I’m going with this based entirely on my perception that it’s going to win Best Picture. Again, YMMV.

Best Animated Feature: Frozen

There’s certainly a chance this could go to The Wind Rises, based on Miyazaki’s enduring legacy, but it’s a controversial film, and not among his best. Frozen however, is on its way to being the highest grossing animated film of all-time. Seems like a lock to me.

Best Foreign Film: The Great Beauty

With this category, I rarely use my own judgement, but just go with what people I respect are predicting (traditionally it was Roger Ebert…sigh). In my poll, this seemed to rise to the top. That’s good enough for me.

Best Documentary: The Act of Killing

I haven’t seen it (see disclaimer above) but it sounds to me like a winner. The other potential winner here is 20 Feet from Stardom, and it’s possible the Netflix-produced The Square could also win. But The Act of Killing sounds to me like the winner. But who knows…this category is always difficult to predict.

Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby

This could easily go to Gravity on the strength of its other wins, but this one usually goes to the most lavish film. And there’s no question that Gatsby wins on that basis. I didn’t love the film, but it shore was purty.

Best Cinematography: Gravity

It won the ASC award, it will win the Oscar. That’s my logic and I’m sticking to it.

Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby

Again, gorgeous designs. It’s possible that American Hustle could surprise us all and win here…but Gatsby had better designs in my mind, and that’s going to translate into a win.

Best Editing: Gravity

Captain Philips won the Eddie, which puts it as the front-runner in this category. If I were smart, I’d pick that. I’m not being smart. I’m going with what I think will be a good night for Gravity. Consider this your warning.

Best Score: Gravity

This one I’m just going with what others are saying. No real opinion from me here.

Best Song: Let it Go from Frozen

I’m not saying I’m leaving the decision to my daughter, but she hasn’t stopped singing it in weeks. That’s good enough for me.

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So there you have it…as I said, I will be in transit, so no live-tweets from me this year. I might do some kind of scheduled pre-tweeting if I can think of anything funny to set up. We’ll see.

If you’re betting on the show, good luck. I look forward to watching the show the following weekend.