Oh jeez, this year. I mean, last year was hard, but that’s largely because there wasn’t any film that was your typical Academy Award winner. But THIS year? Spotlight. The Revenant. The Big Short. Any ONE of them would be a clear winner. Between them they’ve split the guild awards. And then there’s the crazy dark horse that is Mad Max: Fury Road. And who saw THAT one coming?

Sigh.

Normal disclaimer: I pick who I think will win, not who should win. I base my choices entirely on my own research, and that doesn’t mean I care about any individual film. Heck, my favorite film this year was Creed, and that got totally snubbed (particularly for director - how on earth did that happen?). 

Anyway, let’s go through the categories. As long-time readers know, I pick only in categories that are counted in the bet I do with my father. We omit the audio and short categories, but pretty much keep everything else.

Best Picture: The Revenant

This could easily go to any nominee. I’m backing Revenant because I think it’s got momentum, but seriously, who the hell knows?

Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant

Another total mystery here.  Iñárritu won the DGA, which means he’s got the best chance, but I could absolutely see McCarthy or McKay (or even Miller) walking away with it, indicating big nights for their respective films.

Actor in a Leading Role: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Finally one I feel pretty good about. DiCaprio’s won every award he’s been nominated for. He’s a lock.

Actress in a Leading Role: Brie Larson, Room

Another lock. Larson’s won all the awards. Charlotte Rampling had early buzz, but then she started ranting about minorities during awards season. Not a good move.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Hey, Creed might actually win something! It’s sadly the only thing it’s nominated for. It’s a great story - Stallone winning an award for the character he created 40 years ago. And he’s racked up awards, too. But I’d still have preferred to see Ryan Coogler at least get nominated for the flick. Yeesh.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

This one seems like it could go to either Vikander or Kate Winslet. I’m guessing it will be Vikander. I wouldn’t mind seeing Jennifer Jason Leigh win for Hateful Eight, either, but the awards to date have all gone to either Vikander or Winslet, so that seems like a long shot. Not that it matters, but I haven’t seen The Danish Girl, so I can’t say a thing about the performance. But she sure was amazing in Ex Machina, and if that’s any indication, she’s a real talent.

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

The only award of the evening I think will go to these two, which is crazy for such strong films.

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul 

My long standing rule for this (and the documentary category as well) is always pick the Holocaust movie. Doesn’t always work, but no question it’s the winner this year. 

Animated Feature: Inside Out

I wasn’t a fan of Inside Out (and neither was my daughter), and if I trusted the academy to actually watch the films, I’d say it would absolutely go to Anomalisa. But last year’s win by Big Hero 6 (in a category of very strong competitors) tells me the big name is gonna win. And that’s what I suspect will happen here.

Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road

No question, this could absolutely go to Star Wars or something else…but I think Max is gonna win here.

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Violating my rule here for a second - this film deserves this award. That aside, it did win the ACE Eddie award, but then, so did The Big Short. This category could also go with whichever film wins best picture - so by my logic, it could be a full sweep for Revenant. But I’m sticking with Max because it’s so heavily nominated, and I think it will do well in some of the lesser categories (see above). Consider yourself warned.

Original Song: The Hunting Ground

Lady Gaga is going to win an Oscar. Go Gaga go. 

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Same justification as Editing. Call me crazy if you want.

Cinematography: The Revenant

If it’s not Revenant, it will be Mad Max. Or possibly Hateful Eight (did you see it in 75mm! Holy crap!). I’m going with momentum here, plus it won the ASC award (not always the best indicator, but I’m taking it).

Costume Design: Cinderella

I freely admit to guessing blind here. Usually you pick the one with the outlandish costumes, or the Merchant-Ivory-esque period piece. But there’s really nothing to work with here. Cinderella certainly had some nice costumes, so I’m going with it. Mad Max’s grit and dirt was nice, but I don’t know if that provides much challenge.

Documentary Feature: Amy

There seems to be consensus on this one from critics, so I’m going with it. 

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And there you have it, folks. Had to make some really tough choices. It’s gonna be a great show this year. Can’t wait!